Nexus Between Climate Change and Social Protection

Climate change refers to long term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns[1]. The shifts can be because of natural causes but largely as a result human activity. Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing global challenges of our time, with far-reaching impacts on the ecosystems, human systems and economies. The impact of climate change on ecosystems includes: increased floods, storms, droughts, increased pests, severe fires, changes in species and populations and changes in the timing of natural events and cycles. The impact on human systems includes: water scarcity, low agriculture/food production, low animal and livestock productivity, reduced fish yields and aquaculture production, increased infectious diseases, malnutrition, mental health problems and displacement[2]. The economies are also affected leading to decrease in tourism and recreation industries, reduced livelihoods of fishers and farmers and damages to infrastructure as a result of flooding.

The World Bank estimates that by 2030, under high climate change scenarios, 39.7 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty in the South of the Sahara[3]. Currently, the consequences of climate change and the need for robust social protection measures are being felt. The World Social Protection 2024 – 26 by the ILO highlights critical gaps in social protection coverage, particularly in Africa. While coverage has increased from 15.2 percent in 2015 to 19.1 percent, this improvement is overshadowed by the vulnerability of populations in countries affected by climate change. In the 20 countries identified as most vulnerable to climate crisis, only 8.7 percent of the population has access to social protection benefits leaving 364 billion people wholly unprotected[4].

Social protection comprises policies and programs designed to free individuals from poverty and vulnerability through the provision of transfers safety nets like cash transfer programs[5]. Social protection can greatly support households in the face of a rapidly changing climate. It helps households cope with the immediate impacts of climate related shocks. Social Protection involves an ongoing effort to establish measures, such as those addressing droughts, floods, and other climate-related disasters[6].

Climate Change Impact

Africa contributes approximately 4 percent of global carbon emissions, yet it bears the greatest impacts of climate change which means that social protection initiatives are essential to support vulnerable communities. The continent is home to some of the world's most vulnerable populations, who are increasingly exposed to the detrimental effects of a warming planet. These impacts are manifesting in various ways, including extreme weather events, prolonged droughts, and rising sea levels, all of which exacerbate existing challenges such as poverty and inequality.

Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is also a significant driver of social and economic inequality. The poorest communities, who have the least capacity to adapt, are the most vulnerable and susceptible to climate-related food price hikes, which can push them further into poverty. They often live in areas more exposed to natural hazards, such as flood-prone regions or arid zones, and when disasters strike, they tend to lose a larger proportion of their assets and livelihoods compared to wealthier groups.

In addition, the degradation of ecosystems; caused by factors like deforestation, desertification, and pollution; disproportionately affects these communities. Many of the poor rely heavily on natural resources for their survival, such as farming, fishing, and gathering. As these resources become scarcer or less productive due to environmental changes, their ability to sustain themselves diminishes, leading to deeper poverty and heightened inequality[7].

Climate change is perpetuating and increasing poverty. The poor are more vulnerable to climate related food price hikes, are often more exposed to hazards, experience loss to disasters and are disproportionately affected by ecosystem degradation as they are most reliant on natural resources for their livelihoods[8]. Climate change intensifies inequalities, disproportionately affects populations in vulnerable situations and creates new intersecting vulnerabilities across different groups, including marginalized groups based on factors like gender, age, race, geographical location and disability among others.

The socioeconomic impacts of climate change also decrease overall well-being across the non-poor and contribute to making new groups vulnerable affecting societies. The effects of climate change are not uniform, with vulnerable populations often experiencing the most severe impacts[9]. Communities in low-lying coastal areas, arid regions, and developing countries are particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, which manifest as food insecurity, displacement, and loss of livelihoods[10]. In response to these challenges, social protection becomes crucial, aiming to address the vulnerabilities aggravated by climate change.

The Role of Social Protection in Reducing Climate Impacts

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including its Paris Agreement, emphasizes the importance of adaptation measures and social protection systems in helping countries cope with the impacts of climate change.

Social protection can reduce poverty and vulnerability to shocks by increasing incomes and food consumption. Cash transfers can mitigate the negative effects of weather shocks by moderating their impacts especially for households in the lower consumption and food security quintiles [11]. Regular cash or linked transfers provided by food security programs such as Ethiopia’s productive safety net programme (PSNP) and Kenya’s hunger safety net programme (HSNP) enable the poor to meet their most acute and immediate needs and access extra resources in the event of climate related shocks[12].

Social protection enhances the absorptive and adaptive capacities of households confronted with climate related migration. Cash and asset transfers and public works have helped households at risk of forced displacement or distress migration following rapid onset climate impacts[13].

Social protection can be used as a mechanism for anticipatory action to reduce impacts of imminent shocks. In 2015, Hunger safety net programme initiated an emergency scale up of cash transfers to non-routine beneficiary households in Northern Kenya. The scale up was triggered in response to drought conditions using National Drought Management Authority (NDMA’s) vegetation condition index (VCI) data[14].

Social protection can contribute to reducing disaster risks related to climate change by supporting natural resources management and physical environment when linked to complementary programming and embedded in national climate change plans. Public works programmes not only contribute to individual income security and potentially productive investments on behalf of the beneficiaries but could also have positive impacts on climate change and play a key role in the green transformation of our societies[15]. An example of productive safety net programme (PSNP) in Ethiopia- households that have able bodied adults engage in public works. They receive transfers for six months and engage in community-based developments including soil and water conservation, rangeland management which contributes to increased availability of natural resources and agricultural production[16]

Social protection can manage climate related risks. Social protection measures such as social assistance and social insurance help small holder farmers overcome risk related barriers to the adoption of more productive and climate resilient agricultural technology and practices [17]

Social Protection plays a pivotal role in addressing the impact of climate change on employment and livelihoods. Climate related hazards lead to annual loss of working life years with vulnerable populations being disproportionately affected. Social protection instruments such as unemployment protection, social health protection, pensions, cash benefits and public employment programs provide income security, access to health care and can create job and income generating opportunities[18]

Adaptive social protection builds resilience by tailoring initiatives to meet the specific needs of populations affected by climate change. This may include the development of cash transfer programs for farmers facing crop failures due to varying weather patterns and the implementation of insurance mechanisms for communities vulnerable to natural disasters[19]. The integration of climate resilience into social protection policies enhances nations' capacity to withstand and recover from shocks induced by climate-related events.

Challenges

Despite the social protection measures being put in place, there are challenges/ gaps which include low coverage and adequacy, insufficient data and financing of social protection which hinders the management of increasing climate change, limitation of resources, institution capacities and the imperative for global collaboration which need to be addressed.

Recommendations

Developed nations & Industries

The developed nations should support Low-Middle Income Countries in establishing and strengthening their social protection systems[20]. This approach is grounded in the principles of climate justice, seeking to avoid an inequitable distribution of the repercussions of climate change on those who have contributed the least to its emergence.
Allocate sufficient climate finance to developing countries to support their efforts in mitigation and adaptation
Industries to transition to renewable energy by investing and implementing in renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydro power to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Governments

Governments and non-state actors should build evidence on the role of social protection in promoting investment in agricultural productive activities and the adoption of Climate Smart Agriculture
Governments to Incorporate social protection into national climate change policies and strategies, particularly through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPA) is essential for addressing climate-related vulnerabilities and ensuring inclusive, just transitions.
Government should explore synergies with disaster risk finance and Paris aligned investments and climate funds e.g. Green climate fund, Global Environment facility trust fund (GEF), Adaptation fund, Least developed countries fund and Special climate change fund.
Governments should allocate adequate budgets to respond to climate responsive social protection programs
Provide financial and technical support to communities most vulnerable to climate change impacts, such as investing in disaster preparedness and adaptation measures
Governments to link early warnings and anticipatory action with flexible social protection systems to anticipate climate disasters
Governments to address Gender-specific challenges which include women’s limited land ownership, lack of control over production resources, participation of women in energy sector and involvement in decision making in industrial processes and product use must also be addressed to ensure effective climate adaptation and mitigation.

Communities

Make conscious choices to reduce personal carbon footprints, such as using public transportation, reducing meat consumption, and conserving energy
Engage in advocacy efforts to push for stronger climate policies and action that address the socio-economic impact of climate change events
Local communities support the efforts in adaptation by using their own knowledge and decision-making processes to address climate-related challenges. This can include activities like planting drought-resistant crops, managing grazing land, and storing grain for dry seasons, water conservation, reforestation to build resilience against climate impacts

Climate change presents significant global challenges, emphasizing the pivotal role of social protection in mitigating its impacts. Designing adaptive measures, overcoming challenges, and fostering international collaboration are essential for building resilience. Integrating climate-responsive social protection is not merely a policy choice but a moral imperative for ensuring the well-being of the most vulnerable in our shared pursuit of sustainable development.

[1] https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change

[2] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_TechnicalSummary.pdf

[3] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/706751601388457990/pdf/Revised-Estimates-of-the-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-Extreme-Poverty-by-2030.pdf

[4] https://www.ilo.org/publications/flagship-reports/world-social-protection-report-2024-26-universal-social-protection-climate

[5] https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Event/social-protection/Rawlings_Overview%20of%20Social%20Protection%20(poll)_PCC15.pdf

[6] https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/32100/social-protection.pdf

[7] https://www.ilri.org/news/developing-intersectional-social-protection-and-adaptive-social-nets-changing-climate

[8] https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/260011486755946625/pdf/Shock-waves-managing-the-impacts-of-climate-change-on-poverty.pdf

[9] https://www.ipcc.ch/

[10] https://www.oxfam.org/en

[11] https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-61194-5

[12] https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/disa.12339